The concept of architectural repertoire

A building can be considered to be a system which consists of a variety of subsystems:

• Construction;

• Ventilation and heating;

An architect, or rather a firm of architects, will always display certain preferences as to the choice of these subsystems. These preferences determine to an important degree how they distinguish themselves from their colleagues. The reputation of an architect depends not only on his conceptual designs but also on how he deals with the 'nuts and bolts' that are involved. To make a reliable cost estimate for his design, the architect needs to be informed on the cost prices of his 'preferred repertoire' of subsystems. Cost prices of subsystems he never applies are irrelevant to him.

Let us assume that some dozen of past projects of an architects firm are properly documented including historical cost prices of the various preferred subsystems. A multiple variable (linear) regression analysis of these historical cost prices can then provide a basis for a cost price estimate of a new design which includes the typical extra cost or cost savings of the firm's preferred architectural repertoire.

The multiple variable regression analysis provides a probability distribution of the cost prices of the various subsystems of the new design. These probability distributions serve as an input for a Monte Carlo simulation of the cost price of the new building. The output of the Monte Carlo simulation provides the important information of the probability of deviations (plus or minus) from the expected cost price.

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