T tc d dc f fc vt d d

where

Io

= investment to build an island for 600 k flight movements

per year at a distance of 10 km from the shore line

Cif

= increase of required investment per 100 k flight

movements more than 600 k

CId

= increase of required investment per km more distance

from the shore than 10 km

do

= distance shuttle train travels over land

v

= average speed of shuttle train

n

= number of tunnels to the shore

(subscript c denotes constraint value used in the LP model).

The values of parameters used in our simulations were:

Cjf = $0.15 billion/100k flight movements;

n =1 for national airport; 2 for European mega hub.

In multi-criteria optimisation, various variables are chosen in turn as the variable to be optimised. In the case another variable than investment is optimised, the investment has to be added as a constraint: I < Ic, and the constraint limiting the variable to be optimised has to be removed.

As a measure of economic feasibility, we introduce return on investment, ROI, which is the yearly exploitation revenues E, from a tax per passenger, over the investment I: ROI = E.

The yearly exploitation revenues E are related to the number of flight movements by the tax per passenger and the average number of passengers per flight. In our simulations, for both the national airport and the European mega hub option, we used for these parameters 100 passengers per flight and a tax of $ 20 per passenger. The constraint ranges that were used are given in Table 15.2, and the results of various pilot runs in Table 15.3.

The return on investment for the final run: ROI = 206 = 0.10. The conclusion is that the North Sea Island option could significantly increase the solution space for the problem of the extension of Schiphol airport required to maintain its position as main port.

Our open design simulation indicates that a decision to build a national airport in the North Sea can be called rational from a national economic point of view. It would allow Schiphol to grow almost without limits giving the airport a competitive advantage over other main airports like London, Frankfurt and

Table 15.2 Constraints ranges in open design simulation of North Sea Island option for Schiphol (as a national airport)

Stakeholder

Variable

Constraint ranges

Walk-out Acceptable

Ideal

Ministries of Finance and Economics

I [$ billion]

40

25

15

Airlines (KLM)

t [hours]

0.9

0.7

0.5

Ministry of Environment

d [km]

20

30

40

Airport (Schiphol)

f [100 k]

6

8

10

Table 15.3 Results of the open design simulation of the North Sea Island option for Schiphol (as a national airport)

Pilot run

[$ billion]

[hours]

[km]

[100 k]

Ideal values

infeasible

0.500

40.0

10.00

Acceptable values

19.3

0.700(0.600)

30.0

8.00

Walk-out values

17.0

0.900(0.500)

20.0

6.00

P = 0.222; calculated with ideal values

19.5

0.611

31.1

7.78

Design for maximum capacity

19.8

0.611

31.1

10.00

Multi Criteria optimisation: Ministry of En-

19.8(19.6)

0.600

30.0

10.00

vironment relaxes its constraint

Multi Criteria optimisation: airlines relax

19.8

0.700(0.611)

31.1

10.00

their constraint

Final run; I in objective function, d between

20.6

0.700(0.650)

35.0

10.00

acceptable and walk-out values Numbers in italic represent optimised values.

When there is a slack, the values in the optimum solution are given between brackets. P is fraction by which all constraints have to be (equally) relaxed to achieve feasibility.

acceptable and walk-out values Numbers in italic represent optimised values.

When there is a slack, the values in the optimum solution are given between brackets. P is fraction by which all constraints have to be (equally) relaxed to achieve feasibility.

Paris. But would that option be feasible? Environmentalists will find plenty of arguments against it. Consequently, politicians will be reluctant to approve public funding for it, which is a necessary condition for implementation. The key question, therefore, is: How can sufficient political power be generated to build such an island and overcome the associated political problems? One way would be to make it a European issue instead of a national one, thereby making the previously discussed economic decision also politically viable.

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