Preference Modelling

At first, the issue was considered from the viewpoint of preferences of stakeholders: what options are preferable in view of various criteria? Three basic options were considered for the destination of the area:

• Protected nature reservation;

• Residential area.

Initially, five criteria were taken into account:

• Security (both defence of the region against terrorist attacks and safety of VIPs);

Table 13.1 Location - function alternatives and preference input values

VB

GP

DB

DH

WD

RA

AA

A1

MAVA

RA

-

-

-

-

-

A2

MAVA

-

RA

-

-

-

-

A3

RA

-

-

MA

-

VA

-

A4

RA

-

-

MA

-

-

VA

A5

RA

-

-

-

MA

VA

-

A6

RA

-

-

-

MA

-

VA

A7

NA

RA

-

MA

-

VA

-

A8

NA

RA

-

MA

-

-

VA

A9

NA

RA

-

-

MA

VA

-

A10

NA

RA

-

-

MA

-

VA

A11

NA

-

RA

MA

-

VA

-

A12

NA

-

RA

MA

-

-

VA

A13

NA

-

RA

-

MA

VA

-

A14

NA

-

RA

-

MA

-

VA

Legend: A1... 14: Alternatives 1-14

VB: Valkenburg; GP: Grote polder; Duin- en bollenstreek; DH: Den Helder; WD: Woensdrecht; RA: Rotterdam airport; AA: Amsterdam airport; MA: Military Airbase; VA: VIP Airport; RA: Residential area; NA: Nature area

• Protection of nature;

• Infrastructure consequences;

Three different functions have to be fulfilled:

In addition to the location 'Valkenburg', two other location alternatives were considered for each of these three functions, which yields seven location alternatives in total. Combining these seven location alternatives with the three possible functions for the location 'Valkenburg' yields the fourteen location-function combinations as given in Table 13.1.

Preferences are expressed on a scale of 1 (worst imaginable) to 8 (ideal). The fourteen alternatives have to be considered in the light of the five criteria

The Hague Rotterdam Airport

120,000 flights 23 km

Security risk of VIP flights: Amsterdam Airport > Rotterdam Airport > Valkenburg

Figure 13.2 Preference scaling according criterion 'Security of VIPs'

mentioned before: security, nature, housing, infrastructure and economics. These criteria have to be further subdivided to relate them to the various geographical possibilities, which yields a total of ten criteria. The location of a 10 000 house urban development seriously affects the water management of the province. For this reason, water management has been added as the eleventh criterion.

The first step is to scale each of the fourteen alternatives on the eleven criteria scales. As an example, let us consider the criterion 'Security for VIPs'. Security risk of VIPs is reduced by low airport occupation and short distance to The Hague (Fig. 13.2), hence the preference ratings 2, 5, 7 for, respectively, Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Valkenburg. The complete matrix of the preference input values is given in Table 13.2.

The next step is to trade-off the various criteria. For instance, the trade-off 'Security for VIP flights' versus 'Economics of the VIP airport' is obtained by establishing two equally preferred combinations of the two criteria (Table 13.3). In this example, more weight is assigned to 'Security for VIP flights' than to 'Economics of the VIP airport'. The complete list of trade-off input values is given in Table 13.4.

Scaling the preferences and establishing the trade-offs between the criteria were conducted using, as genuinely as possible, the numerous reports on the subject, which were available from a variety of sources. The PFM software (see Section 5.2) can then establish the overall order of preference for the fourteen alternatives (Table 13.5).

Two alternatives deserve special attention:

Table 13.2 Preference input values

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

C7

C8

C9

C10

C11

NP

NP

NP

HN

SC

SC

WT

IS

EC

EC

EC

MA

VA

RA

RA

NL

VIP

RA

RA

MA

VA

RA

Ideal

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

A1

7.2

7.0

7.0

5.0

7.0

7.0

2.0

6.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

A2

7.2

7.0

2.0

5.0

7.0

7.0

5.0

2.0

7.0

7.0

2.0

A3

2.0

4.0

3.0

5.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

A4

2.0

2.0

3.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

4.0

A5

3.0

4.0

3.0

5.0

4.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

5.0

3.0

4.0

A6

3.0

2.0

3.0

5.0

4.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

4.0

A7

2.0

4.0

7.0

5.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

6.0

2.0

3.0

7.0

A8

2.0

2.0

7.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

6.0

2.0

2.0

7.0

A9

3.0

4.0

7.0

5.0

4.0

5.0

2.0

6.0

5.0

3.0

7.0

A10

3.0

2.0

7.0

5.0

4.0

2.0

2.0

6.0

5.0

2.0

7.0

A11

2.0

4.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

5.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

2.0

A12

2.0

2.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

A13

3.0

4.0

2.0

5.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

2.0

5.0

3.0

2.0

A14

3.0

2.0

2.0

5.0

4.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

5.0

2.0

2.0

Worst

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Legend: A1... 14: Alternatives 1-14

NP: Nature preservation; HN: Housing need; SC: Security; WT: Water; IS: Infrastructure; EC: Economics; MA: Military Airbase; VA: VIP Airport; RA: Residential area; NA: Nature area; NL: National.

Table 13.3 Example of establishing a trade-offs ratio

Security of VIP flights 4.0 3.0 Economics of VIP airport 2.0 8.0 Trade-off ratio: (8 - 2) / (4 - 3) = 6.0

Table 13.4 Trade-off input values for computing ratio's

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

C7

C8

C9

C10

C11

NP

NP

NP

HN

SC

SC

WT

IS

EC

EC

EC

MA

VA

RA

RA

NL

VIP

RA

RA

MA

VA

RA

C1

-

1.0

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.2

0.4

0.6

0.2

0.2

0.2

C2

1.0

-

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.2

0.4

0.6

0.2

0.2

0.2

C3

1.0

1.0

-

0.8

1.2

1.2

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

C4

1.3

1.3

1.3

-

1.5

1.5

0.5

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.3

C5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

-

1.0

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

C6

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

1.0

-

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

C7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.0

3.0

3.0

-

1.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

C8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.3

2.0

2.0

0.7

-

0.3

0.3

0.3

C9

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

6.0

6.0

2.0

3.0

-

1.0

1.0

C10

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

6.0

6.0

2.0

3.0

1.0

-

1.0

C11

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

2.0

3.0

2.0

2.0

NP: Nature preservation; HN: Housing need; SC: Security; WT: Water; IS: Infrastructure; EC: Economics; MA: Military Airbase; VA: VIP Airport; RA: Residential area; NA: Nature area; NL: National.

Table 13.5 Results of preference modelling

Alternative

Overall Preference

A1

6.49

A2

5.56

A3

4.62

A4

4.13

A5

3.87

A6

3.72

A7

3.69

A8

3.38

A9

3.23

A10

3.21

A11

2.97

A12

2.95

A13

2.49

A14

2.46

• Alternative 2: the option to maintain 'Valkenburg' as a military airbase for both the Navy and VIP flights, combined with a residential area in the (politically taboo) 'Grote Polder' turns out to be the most preferable option.

• Alternative 5: the option to turn the airbase into a residential area, as preferred in the fifth memorandum urban planning and still the official political choice, scores extremely low in the preference ranking.

As a sensitivity analysis with limited deviations, on both the scaling of the preferences and on the trade-offs, did not change this outcome, the question was raised which criteria have to be ignored altogether to get Alternative 5 at the top of the list. It turns out that Alternative 5 only becomes the most preferable option if:

• The criterion 'Security' is completely ignored for both defence and VIPs.

• The nature value of the grass land 'Grote Polder' is valued more highly than the bird breeding area Waddenzee, the dunes, and the flower bulb area.

• The huge infrastructure cost related to locating 10 000 houses on the land and the cost of moving the military activities to Den Helder are ignored.

These conditions demonstrate the absurdity of the original political course. Why this could happen is further elaborated in Chapter 14.

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