Conclusions

When we compare the outcomes as shown in both tables, we can conclude the following.

The ranking based on slack is totally different from the ranking based on risk. Out of the six paths ranked highest based on risk, only two were identified using the ranking based on slack. This means that the information the project manager would get from path ranking based on slack alone would not provide him with all the information he needs.

Path A, identified as The Critical Path based on the deterministic approach, is not the path that was most critical based on the probabilistic approach. Even more surprising: Path A was never critical according to the Monte Carlo simulation.

Path G, ranked as the most critical in the risk ranking, is not ranked high when based on slack. Should the project manager use the ranking on slack to identify which paths to pay particular attention to, path G would not get appropriate attention.

It turns out that six different paths (not including 'The Critical Path' A!) have substantial associated risk (frequency of being the critical path in the Monte Carlo simulation), indicating that they should get particular attention from the project management.

Simulations including mitigations on-the-run and allowance for limited human resources are left to the reader.

Table 11.1 Path ranking on slack

Ranking 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Path ID A B C D E F

Table 11.2 Path ranking on risk

Ranking

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th 6th

Path ID

G

C

H

B

I J

Percentage

22.35

15.81

12.16

9.71

9.28 7.88

Project Management Made Easy

Project Management Made Easy

What you need to know about… Project Management Made Easy! Project management consists of more than just a large building project and can encompass small projects as well. No matter what the size of your project, you need to have some sort of project management. How you manage your project has everything to do with its outcome.

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