Allowing for limited human resources

Each mitigation Ci, Ati will require human resources R having one or more skills S (Table 3.3).

With this input, the Monte Carlo simulation of the preceding section not only can provide the set of mitigations Ci, Ati required to meet the deadline t0 for completion at an acceptable probability p but also the associated set of skills S required for implementation.

The distribution of skills S over a pool of persons R can be specified in an input table (Table 3.4).

Table 3.4 Distribution of skills S over pool of human resources R

S1 S2 S3 S4

With this input, the minimum required project team can be obtained from:

k=i subject to the restriction:


a = the number of allocations per person, ao = the maximum number of allocations per person,

Which means that we minimise the size of the project team with the constraint that one person can be assigned to maximum ao mitigations. This maximum a0 should never exceed four because it has been established (Peltz and Andrews, 1976) that even a very competent person cannot handle more than four tasks simultaneously.

The rationale for choosing the objective function 3.13 is that the smaller the project team is, the better it is. Each project team member brings along costs -and opportunity costs - related to mobilisation and demobilisation and time to get familiar with the project. Multi-skill persons, therefore, should be preferred above single-skill specialists, which is achieved by the objective function 3.13.

The output of this LP-run provides the composition of the project team needed to carry out the mitigations (output of the first LP-run).

Let us assume that one or more persons R of this project team cannot be made available. The first step then is to remove those Q, At, mitigations which require skills S that are no longer available in the Table 3.4.

With these corrected inputs the Monte Carlo simulation is repeated which reflects the situation of reduced human resources.

When too much persons are removed from Table 3.4, no solution will be found, indicating that either the deadline to for completion has to be relaxed or more human resources have to be provided.

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