## Linear single variable regression analysis

Consider a firm of architects that has data on 30 types of houses from a project. The database has data on the cost price and on both the gross and usable floor-space per house. Table 4.1 shows the content of the database. For instance, type 3A has a cost price of 98,352 and has a gross floorspace of 163 m2 and a usable floorspace of 122.2 m2. The firm wishes to develop a formula to predict the cost price of a (similar) house based on either the gross or usable floorspace. Figure 4.1 shows a...

## Monte Carlo simulation of a portfolio of real estate investments

Real estate investors are primarily interested in the risk profile (probability distribution of expected return) of their portfolio of projects. What we need, therefore, is a method to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation for a portfolio of projects with different starting dates, different lifetimes and different risk profiles. Any project, j, of a portfolio of N projects has a past (indicated by subscript P) and a future (indicated by subscript F). The NPV is the sum of the NPV over the past and...

## Key Issues Matrix

In the management of the project the concept of a Key Issues Matrix played an important role in focussing attention on the right issues and addressing them with appropriate management tools. On the horizontal axis are placed the management tools addressing the key issues, such as communication, continuity of staff, delegation procedures and lessons from other projects. On the vertical axis are placed the key issues put forward by the project managers. Then the question was asked what can each...

## European airport in the North Sea a rational and feasible option for the European main airports

Environmentalists are, in general, not interested in local solutions which only move pollution problems elsewhere. They wish to resolve pollution issues globally. In regard to air transport, they favour substitution of air transport by rail transport. For the long distances of intercontinental connections, air transport is the only possibility when travel time is of any importance. Intercontinental trains simply do not exist. As a result, environmentalists tend to accept intercontinental...

## Appendix A Grannys puzzle

On the request of the first author (who was a member of the Committee) Hennes A.J. De Ridder (1994) wrote a fairy tale to make clear what his Ph.D. thesis was all about. The story illustrates so well that the separation of Design and Construct (D& C) is artificial, that we feel that it deserves to be added as an unabridged appendix to this book. A Client's grandmother, who is fond of puzzles but who is too old for puzzling now, is celebrating her birthday. Client wants to surprise...

## Behavioural theory of Argyris and Schn a summary

Behaviour is governed by theories of action. A theory of action is defined in terms of a particular situation, S, a particular consequence, intended in that situation, C, and an action strategy, A, for obtaining consequence C in situation S. The general form of a theory of action is similar to a computer program. If you intend to produce consequence C in situation S, then do A. A theory of action, whether it applies to organisations or individuals, may take two different forms. By espoused...

## Expert design versus Open Design

The classical approach to the problem of designing a new building or new residential area is to consult an expert or a limited group of experts. In the case of a new building, architects and structural engineers are consulted. In the case of a new residential area, additional advice is sought from urban planners and traffic engineers. These experts provide a solution to the design problem which has to be 'sold' to the users of the building and project developers, or the future inhabitants of...

## The use of multiple variable linear regression analysis in architectural design

In general, cost prices depend on much more than one variable. To derive rules of the thumb for cost prices calculations we have to conduct multiple variable (linear) regression analysis of databases on past construction projects. Most cost price calculation procedures, for instance SVINSK which is in use in our faculty, are based on regression analysis. The so-called REN-norms, giving cost price calculation rules, for office buildings, constitute another example. The term 'norms' is...

## Analyse database using correlation analysis

The properties 'Number of addresses per square kilometre' and 'Number of houses per hectare' are very similar, which means that, possibly, only one should be used in the regression analysis. For this purpose correlation analysis is carried out prior to the regression analysis. To determine whether a coefficient is meaningful to include in the regression, the following relationship holds (for derivation, see standard text books on statistics) Z coefficient depending on the chosen confidence...

## Risk assessment in network planning through Monte Carlo simulation

As a solution for this problem, Lanza (2003) proposes a Monte Carlo approach. In essence, this involves the following steps 1. Establish most optimistic most likely most pessimistic estimates for the duration of all project activities 2. Calculate the Critical Path using the most-likely-estimates. So far the procedure is the same as in traditional PERT planning 3. Establish one or more other paths through the network that may actually become critical paths as a result of high variability in the...

## Risk diversification example portfolio of projects

As an investor you have a portfolio with real estate objects with estimated characteristics as shown in Table 2.3. You first add the portfolio characteristics to the MCS software or alternatively open the sample project O e_mcs-3 . Figure 2.5 Portfolio characteristics Figure 2.5 Portfolio characteristics You can check the portfolio's characteristics by clicking either the 'Input' or 'PortFolio Input' tab. This will show output as shown in Figure 2.5. You can then click the 'Perform Portfolio...

## Best practices of project management

In Tables 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 we have summarised, in ten aspects, the best practices for project management and their implications as can be found in the literature on the subject. We call them PI practices, for simple projects, which we distinguish from PII practices, being more appropriate for managing complex projects. These PII practices, will be presented in Chapter 3. They have been summarised in the same ten aspects. Of course, our summary of PI management practices is by no means exhaustive,...

## Monte Carlo simulation

Since the variables investment I, cost of capital r, yearly net exploitation revenues E, and rest value V as defined in the preceding section are stochastically independent, a Monte Carlo simulation can be conducted based on ranges specified for these variables. We have developed a software package for this purpose (Van Gunsteren and Krebbers, 2000). The input consists of the lifetime m and the ranges (three Figure 8.1 Output illustration of Monte Carlo simulation Figure 8.1 Output illustration...

## Lex A van Gunsteren

Lex A. van Gunsteren 1938 is since 1997 engaged in the development of Open Design methodology in the Chair Computer Aided Design and Planning of the Faculty of Architecture of Delft University of Technology. He graduated as a naval architect and received his Ph.D. from Delft University, where in 1981 he was also appointed as Professor in Management of Technological Innovation. He was one of the pioneers of the Rotterdam School of Management where he taught management of innovation and crisis...

## Open Design a Collaborative Approach to Architecture

1 The potential of mathematical modelling for architecture and urban planning has increased dramatically in the nineties 8 1.1 Sjoelbak Dutch shuffleboard 10 1.2 Expert design sjoelbak 10 1.3 Multi-stakeholder sjoelbak design 11 1.4 Mathematical modelling in Open Design 16 2.1 In Open Design, the product champion needs several benefactors 23 3.1 Graphical representation of professor's time allocation problem 28 3.2 Professor's time allocation problem 28 3.3 Manufacturing allocation problem 31...