Uses three estimates to define an approximate range for an activitys duration

• Most likely fa). The duration of the activity, given the resources likely to be assigned, their productivity, realistic expectations of availability for the activity, dependencies on other participants, and interruptions.

• Optimistic (to). The activity duration is based on analysis of the best-case scenario for the activity.

• Pessimistic (tp). The activity duration is based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for the activity.

PERT analysis calculates an Expected (y activity duration using a weighted average of these three estimates:

Duration estimates based on this equation (or even on a simple average of the three points) may provide more accuracy, and the three points clarify the range of uncertainty of the duration estimates.

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Project Management Made Easy

Project Management Made Easy

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