Forecasting with the Time Centric System

Just like in the traditional earned value system, forecasts can be made using the same formula as we developed for the forecast in that system:

Forecast = Actual performance + Remaining performance/Index

For example, in the first period the actual starts are 3, the remaining performance for the project is 17, and the index is 0.6. The forecast is therefore:

Forecast = 3 + 17/0.6 = 3 + 28.3 = 31.3 starts where 31.3 = "equivalent" starts.

How should the project manager interpret the forecast given above? The equivalent starts represent the length of the project as though the PMB were 31.3 starts rather than 20. In other words, based on the performance in the first period, the project is forecasted to be 11.3/20 = 56.5% longer in schedule than the PMB. Fortunately, by the second period the trend line turns more favorable:

Cumulative index = Cumulative starts = Forecast =

12 + 8/0.8 = 22 starts where 22 = "equivalent" starts.

As with the traditional earned value system, the most valuable contribution of the calculations is to stimulate the project team to take action necessary to deliver the value to the project sponsor as defined on the project balance sheet and specified in the project charter. Whether or not the time-centric or traditional system is used, the calculations should have the same effect and provide the requisite catalyst to correct whatever is not working well in the project.

[12]The original work on "time-centric earned value" was done by the author and colleague James Sumara while working with the Lanier Worldwide business unit of Harris Corporation in the mid-1990s. Although the traditional earned value system was well known and practiced at Harris, the Lanier Worldwide business unit did not have the mechanisms for complete collection of the actual cost of the labor employed for internal projects. Time-centric earned value was developed for the Lanier Worldwide project office to fill the need for an earned value reporting tool.

["^Goodpasture, John C. and Sumara, James R., Earned Value — The Next Generation — A Practical Application for Commercial Projects, PMI '97 Seminars and Symposium Proceedings, Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA, 1997.

Team LiB

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