AND and OR with Overlap or Collisions

We can now go one step further and consider the situation where events A and B are not mutually exclusive (that is, A and B might occur together sometimes or perhaps overlap in some way). Figure 2-1 illustrates the case. As an example, let's continue to observe pairs of dice, but the experiment will be to toss three die at once. All die remain independent, but the occurrence of the event "7" or "5" is no longer mutually exclusive. The event {3,4,1} might be rolled providing the opportunity for the (3,4) pair of the "7" event and the (4,1) pair of the "5" event. However, we are looking for p(A) or p(B) but not p(A * B); therefore, those tosses like event {3,4,1} where "A and B" occur cannot be counted, thereby reducing the opportunities for either A or B. Throwing out the occurrence of "A and B" reduces the chances for "A or B" alone to happen. From this reasoning comes a more general equation for OR:

Work package 1,1, B2

Work package 1.1, R1

Work package 1.1, R3

Time Segments

Project events consist of three activities from the WB$ with need for She same resource, R

The probability of success, that is availability of /?i, is diminished by the probability of a neetf for R in two or more lasks at the same time.

The fll resource, if provided in tinne-segmenl A, would not interfere with R2 and R3.

p (R1+ R2+R3) = p{R1]+f)(R2) + p(R3)-p{R1 * RZ)-p(R1- R3)~ p{R2 ' R3] -p (R1 • R2*R3)

II the work packages do not need the common resource, then we assume the work packages are otherwise independent of each other. Figure 2-1: Overlapping Events.

Notice that if A and B are mutually exclusive, then p(A * B) = 0, which gives a result consistent with the earlier equation given for the OR situation.

Looking at the above equation, the savvy project manager recognizes that risk has increased for achieving a successful outcome of either A or B since the possibility of their joint occurrence, overlap, or collision of A and B takes away from the sum of p(A) + p(B). Such a situation could come up in the case of two resources providing inputs to the project, but if they are provided together, then they are not useful. Such collisions or race conditions (a term from system engineering referring to probabilistic interference) are common in many technology projects.

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Project Management Made Easy

Project Management Made Easy

What you need to know about… Project Management Made Easy! Project management consists of more than just a large building project and can encompass small projects as well. No matter what the size of your project, you need to have some sort of project management. How you manage your project has everything to do with its outcome.

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