## Estimating Total Program Time

In order to calculate the probability of completing the project on time, the standard deviations of each activity must be known. This can be found from the expression:

where is the standard deviation of the expected time, te. Another useful expression is the variance, v, which is the square of the standard deviation. The vari-

7 It is assumed that the functional manager performs all of the estimating. The reader should be aware that there are exceptions where the program or project office would do their own estimating.

8 See F. S. Hillier and G. J. Lieberman, Introduction to Operations Research (San Francisco: Holden-Day, 1967), p. 229.

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