The Shampu framework

The SHAMPU framework involves nine phases, with purposes and tasks as outlined in Table 4.1. For comparison and exposition purposes, two simplified (macrophase) frameworks are defined in Table 4.2.

The simplest (three phase) framework in Table 4.2 provides a top-down overview of the process that the SHAMPU acronym is based on. The starting point is shape the project strategy, which involves shaping project uncertainty at a strategic level to make the chosen approach to project uncertainty both effective and efficient in a risk efficient sense. This is followed by harness the plans (defined in terms of all six Ws), which involves harnessing the uncertainty shaped at a strategic level by developing risk efficient plans at a tactical level. These tactical level plans are necessary for implementation. Manage implementation, managing this harnessed uncertainty, is the third key ingredient. In very simple terms shape, harness and manage project uncertainty is what the SHAMPU process is about. 'Shape' is used in the effective strategic crafting sense adopted by Miller and

Table 4.1—A nine phase portrayal of the SHAMPU process outlining purposes and tasks phases purposes and tasks in outline define the project focus the process identify the issues structure the issues clarify ownership estimate variability evaluate implications harness the plans manage implementation

Consolidate relevant existing information about the project at a strategic level in a holistic and integrated structure suitable for risk management. Fill in any gaps uncovered in the consolidation process, and resolve any inconsistencies.

Scope and provide a strategic plan for the RMP. Plan the RMP at an operational level.

Identify sources of uncertainty at a strategic level in terms of opportunities and threats. Identify what might be done about it, in terms of proactive and reactive responses. Identify secondary sources of uncertainty associated with responses.

Complete the structuring of earlier phases. Test simplifying assumptions. Provide more complex or alternative structures when appropriate.

Allocate both financial and managerial responsibility for issues (separately if appropriate).

Size the uncertainty that is usefully quantified on a first pass. On later passes, refine earlier estimates of uncertainty where this is effective and efficient.

Assess statistical dependence (dependence not modelled in a causal structure). Synthesize the results of the estimate phase using dependence assumptions that are fit for the purpose. Interpret the results in the context of all earlier phases. Make decisions about proactive and reactive responses, and about refining and redefining earlier analysis, managing the iterative nature of the process as a key aspect of these tasks.

Obtain approval for strategic plans shaped by earlier phases. Prepare detailed action plans. These are base plans (incorporating preventative responses) and contingency plans (incorporating reactive responses with trigger points) ready for implementation within the action horizons defined by appropriate lead times. Commit to project plans that are fit for implementation.

Manage the planned work. Develop action plans for implementation on a rolling basis. Monitor and control (make decisions to refine or redefine project plans as required). Deal with crises (unanticipated issues of significance) and be prepared to cope appropriately with disasters (crises that are not controlled).

Table 4.2—Alignment of simplified (macrophase) portrayals of the SHAMPU process

the basic nine phase SHAMPU process

middle level (five phase) portrayal

simplest (three phase) portrayal

define the project focus the process

clarify the basis of analysis

shape the project strategy

identify the issues structure the issues clarify ownership

execute the qualitative analysis

estimate variability evaluate implications

execute the quantitative analysis

harness the plans

harness the plans

harness the plans

manage implementation

manage implementation

manage implementation

Lessard (2000), except that we explicitly associate 'shape' with seeking risk efficiency in the extended corporate/dynamic sense discussed in Chapter 3. 'Harness' is a word chosen to emphasize the need to transform project strategy into operational plans at a different level of detail for implementation purposes. The harness phase is a clarification of the PRAM (Project Risk Analysis and Management) planning phase (Simon et al., 1997), and clarification is facilitated by another label.

The middle level (five phase) framework in Table 4.2 provides more detail for 'shape the project strategy'. The basis of analysis must be clarified, executing qualitative analysis provides the necessary holistic structure, and quantitative analysis serves essential roles within this holistic structure.

Identifying the phases of the SHAMPU process in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 terms provides only a partial description of the SHAMPU process. A key aspect not captured in these tables is the iterative nature of the process. Iterations involve revisiting or looping back to earlier phases to develop, refine, or reconsider aspects of the analysis undertaken to date.

The way iterations between phases are managed has a major impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of the project's strategy and on the effectiveness and efficiency of the SHAMPU process itself. In project strategy terms, effectiveness and efficiency involve explicit attention to risk efficient choices as discussed in Chapter 3. In risk management process terms, effectiveness and efficiency involves a related simplicity efficiency concept. Simplicity efficiency is about achieving the maximum amount of insight for any given level of effort by choosing an approach to each successive pass through the SHAMPU phases in a way that copes efficiently and effectively with uncertainty (Chapman and Ward, 2002). The concept of simplicity efficiency is developed and illustrated via examples in Chapters 5-15.

define the project

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focus the process

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identify the issues

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structure the Issues

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clarify ownership

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estimate variability

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evaluate Implications

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harness the plans

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manage Implementation

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