Pessimistic probability scenario

Step 8 involves assessing the chance that the issue will occur at all, again to one significant figure (to the nearest 0.1, 0.01, 0.001, etc.), in terms of a pessimistic probability scenario. Like the pessimistic outcome scenario, it should be nominal in the sense that it has:

1. a rounded value that makes it convenient to work with and indicates clearly its approximate nature;

2. a perceived chance of being exceeded of the order of 10% for a threat and 90% for an opportunity.

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