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The results of the application of these formula to the data are shown in Table 3-29:

At this point, we would normally calculate the project total for the mean and the variance. However, we cannot just add them up as we did with cost. This is because the project duration is a function of the predecessors and the durations given. This is also called the critical path in the CPM process. Let's examine what impact the various estimates make on the project duration. We already know that the most probable scenario has a project duration of 22 with a critical path of A, C, F, and G. Begin by placing the optimistic estimate into the CPM matrix and recalculate the project duration and critical path as shown in Table 3-30.

From this, we can see that the critical path did not change, but the project duration is reduced to only 12. This seems very low and can only occur if every task meets its optimistic estimate. We will look at the probability of

TABLE 3-30 Calculate Project Duration

Task

Pred.

Dur.

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