Info

State of art, some research complete

State of art, never done before

Extremely complex

Extremely complex

Performance dependent on new system schedule, facility, or associate contractor

TABLE 17-14. A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT (Continued)

(Cs)

0.1 (low)

Minimal or no consequences, unimportant

Budget estimates not exceeded, some transfer of money

Negligible impact on program, slight development schedule change compensated by available schedule slack

0.3 (minor)

Small reduction in technical performance

Cost estimates exceed budget by 1 to 5 percent

Minor slip in schedule (less than 1 month), some adjustment in milestones required

0.5 (moderate)

Some reduction in technical performance

Cost estimates increased by 5 to 20 percent

Small slip in schedule

0.7 (significant)

Significant degradation in technical performance

Cost estimates increased by

20 to 50 percent

Development schedule slip in excess of 3 months

0.9 (high)

Technical goals cannot be achieved

Cost estimates increased in excess of 50 percent

Large schedule slip that affects segment milestones or has possible effect on system milestones

Assume that the weighting factors for a, b, c, d, and e are 20 percent, 10 percent, 40 percent, 10 percent, and 20 percent, respectively.

PM (hardware)

= 0.1

0.2 PM (h)

= 0.02

PM (software)

= 0.3

0.1 Pm (s)

= 0.03

PC (hardware)

= 0.1

0.4 Pc (h)

= 0.04

PC (software)

= 0.3

0.1 Pc (s)

= 0.03

Pd

= 0.9

0.2 Pd

= 0.1S

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