Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs

The output of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process is—I'll bet you can guess— risk register updates. As with the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process, you'll record the following new elements in the risk register:

Probabilistic analysis of the project Probabilistic analysis of the project is the forecasted results of the project schedule and costs as determined by the outcomes of risk analysis. These results include projected completion dates and costs, along with a confidence level associated with each. According to the PMBOK® Guide, this output is often expressed as a cumulative distribution, and you'll use these results along with stakeholder risk tolerances to quantify the time and cost contingency reserves. (I'll talk about contingency reserves in the next section, "Developing a Risk Response Plan.")

Confidence levels can also be used to describe the level of confidence placed on the outcome of the forecasted results. For example, suppose the projected schedule completion date is July 12 and the confidence level is .85. This says you believe the project will finish on or before July 12 and that you have an 85 percent level of confidence that this date is accurate.

Probability of achieving the cost and time objectives Using the tools and techniques of Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis allows you to assign a probability of achieving the cost and time objectives of the project. This output documents those probabilities and as such requires a thorough understanding of the current project objectives and knowledge of the risks.

Prioritized list of quantified risks The prioritized list in this process is similar to the list produced during the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process. The list of risks includes those that present the greatest risk or threat to the project and their impacts. It also lists those risks that present the greatest opportunities to the project. This list should also indicate which risks are most likely to impact the critical path and those that have the largest cost contingency.

Trends in Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis results Trends in Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis will likely appear as you repeat the risk analysis processes. This information is useful as you progress, making those risks with the greatest threat to the project more evident, which gives you the opportunity to perform further analysis or go on to develop risk response plans.

Project Management Made Easy

Project Management Made Easy

What you need to know about… Project Management Made Easy! Project management consists of more than just a large building project and can encompass small projects as well. No matter what the size of your project, you need to have some sort of project management. How you manage your project has everything to do with its outcome.

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